A round up of stories about intrade provides some remarkable material.
First, Obama has taken the lead–for the very first time–against Clinton in Intrade.
This site has more than you need to know about futures markets and the subtle point that they don’t predict but rather capture what people think will happen. Clear?
Intrade was famously wrong in “predicting” (there we are again with that word) that the midterms would switch hands in 2006, but it is all explained here.
There’s a gallery of expired charts (for races that are over but that we want to compare). Here’s the Superbowl for example:
How much has been bet so far on the presidential race? $50 million.
February 8, 2008 at 10:23 am
Now that Romney is out, will his supporters vote McCain or Huckabee?
February 8, 2008 at 4:01 pm
They’ll support McCain. They have to support McCain because Huckabee has too much religious baggage,
and by baggage he now is the focal point for the religious right. Look at who just announced
his support for Huckabee today.
February 11, 2008 at 10:23 am
You are referring to James Dobson of Focus on the Family, I take it, who announced his support for Huckabee.
February 15, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Yes it was Dobson. It seems now with Romney’s
support for McCain Huckabee is out even for a VP spot. This will further marginalize the religious right and finally give the moderates a shot at running the Republican party.
February 21, 2008 at 1:59 pm
[...] Jeremy: This site has more than you need to know about futures markets and the subtle point that they don’t predict but rather capture what people think will happen. Clear? [...]